Conclusion

Our study shows that small businesses in Richmond have seen a promising rebound since the pandemic, especially in certain priority growth areas like Manchester and Downtown. Manchester, a historically Black neighborhood and manufacturing center, rezoned about 700 properties from heavy industrial to residential and mixed-use. Since rezoning, several dozen new developments have sprung up, such as former warehouses converted into loft apartments above street level breweries. By leveraging aggregated and anonymized consumer spending, our study found that total consumer Mastercard spending in Manchester has grown every year compared to 2019–increasing by 53% from 2019 to 2021 and by 44% from 2019 to 2022. We also found that Manchester saw a 41% increase in the number of small businesses from 2019 to 2022, indicating that Manchester is a desirable place to open small businesses. This increase in the number of small businesses and consumer spending in Manchester is spurred by its designation as a federal opportunity zone, LISC Virginia (a CDFI) lending, and population growth. 

However, the biggest jump in Mastercard Spend Volume occurred in Downtown Richmond, which saw an overall 49% increase in consumer spending from 2019 to 2022. A remarkable rebound from an initial decline in spend between 2019 and 2020. The Downtown district contains within it the Jackson Ward neighborhood, one of Richmond 300’s priority growth nodes and a former social and economic hub for Richmond’s Black community. The district continues to have among the highest concentrations of small businesses in the entire city in part due to federal grants and funding from the infrastructure bill to revitalize downtown and key partnerships that create a cohesive network of services and supports. The government's place-based strategy in coordination with the small business support ecosystem offers a reason for optimism that the growth can continue in an equitable way.